Commodity Breakeven Comparisons for 2022

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Increasing commodity production input prices and the probability that some inputs may be in short supply, if available at all, make planning for the 2022 crop difficult. Simply relating the percentage increase to each commodity will result in misleading results and may lead to poor decisions. As such, NC State University has provided an update to the Crop Comparison Tool. This tool uses the average 2021 input prices and allows one to simply enter the percentage increase for specific inputs. This tool includes all cost associated with production, transportation, drying, hauling, and assumes purchase of crop insurance. Too, one can modify expected yield and price received for corn, soybean, cotton, peanut, sorghum and tobacco crops.

Each farmer should download this program and input their own prices. Below are some breakeven profit/loss projections with varying commodity prices and yield provided for corn, soybean, cotton, peanut, and tobacco. These figures represent 2021 average prices with an increase as follows:

Input                                          Price Increase

Nitrogen (30%)                                   200%

DAP (18-46-0)                                     150%

Phosphate (0-46-0)                                0%

Potassium (0-0-60)                             300%

Lime                                                    50%

Herbicides                                           50%

Insecticides                                         0%

All other inputs                                    0%

Note that corn, soybean and cotton show the greatest potential profit even with the added production increases, in part, due to the increasing commodity prices. In contrast, peanut and tobacco show the most risk due to increasing inputs but a lack of increasing prices received for the commodity. Should these two commodity prices increase, then so will profit potential in 2022.

Chart relating increasing corn yield and increasing prices to net loss or profit

Chart relating increasing soybean yield and increasing prices to net loss or profit.

Chart relating increasing cotton yield and increasing prices to net loss or profit.

Chart relating increasing peanut yield and increasing prices to net loss or profit.

Chart relating increasing tobacco yield and increasing prices to net loss or profit.

Resources for these figures are found at NC State University Enterprise Budgets and the 2022 Crop Comparison Tool.